The effects of climate change on Australia’s only endemic Pokémon: Measuring bias in species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are frequently used to predict the effects of climate change on species conservation concern. Biases inherent in process constructing SDMs and transferring them new scenarios may result undesirable outcomes. We explore these issues demonstrate methods estimate biases induced by design SDM studies. present context estimating Australia's only endemic Pokémon. Using a citizen science dataset, we build for Garura kangaskhani suitability habitat species. novel Monte Carlo procedure implicit given study design, compare results seen Pokémon those from our tests as well previous studies same region using both simulated real data. Our suggest that will impact G. kangaskhani, which compound threats such loss their use blood sport. However, also find can be accompanied so strong data themselves have minimal modelling show direction magnitude bias estimates impacts affected every aspect process, should included future this type. Given widespread SDMs, systemic could substantial financial opportunity costs. By demonstrating presenting statistical tool them, hope provide more secure rest world's biodiversity.